NOK - Got to $4 faster than I thought! - Might be time to take profits

NOK - was floating around the $5 mark when the hype started building around the new Nokia Windows based smart phone that was going into Wal-Mart at the $50 price point. This was being billed as the smart phone for the masses and the revival of Nokia and Windows mobile platforms. I didn't buy it.

 

Much faster than I expected the bottom fell out once the hype died down and people realized that Nokia can't play in the American market and that Windows just can't get any traction in the mobile space. Windows does not have the developer base to build a mobile platform! In my last post NOK was at $5.33 and I predicted a long run trend down to $4. Only a few weeks later its already there. Might be a time to take some profits and run!

 

I've had a few other trades go against me (XRX) but NOK is looking at a hefty gain with close to 40% gain in just a month since my entry point with a $5 PUT option on 3/16/12. I still have faith in XRX so I might be closing out my NOK position today and doubling down on XRX hoping for a earnings beat on 4/23/12

Thanks for reading!

Straight from the Chart

Disclaimer:
Just to be clear, nothing that I'm posting on this blog is in any way advice that should be followed by anyone else. All investment decisions should be made carefully by all individuals taking into account their own financial situation and appropriate levels of risk. Do not take anything I say for anything more than it is, opinion, speculation, and woefully undereducated guesses as to how I think a few stocks are going to perform. 

NOK - Starting to turn - Following the pattern!

 NOK (Nokia) has been following a pretty steady pattern for the past few months of a big jump (around 4-5%) in one day and then a gradual sell off over the next few weeks. My last post was identifying the 5% gain that took place on no news and for seemingly no reason.

 

Today's move down nearly 2% on light volume is consistent with the pattern that we identified a few days ago. An interesting note is that in the past few days, even as the stock was going up in value the PUT was having slight increases! Meaning that even as the stock went up, sentiment (and investors money) was voting against the gains. 

 

As you can see in the chart the pattern is repeating for the 4th time. Keep your eye on it. This stock is in a fairly shallow trading range and things can change quickly when that happens. Fortunately we can all rest assured that if the stock moves anywhere it is not going to be on performance data. Instead expect it to move down ward gradually.

My Nokia position is a Jan 2014 PUT option with a $5 strike. Because this is a pretty shallow trade without a ton of price movement, I will likely keep this option waiting for a dip in the $4 range. I know a lot of people think that the new $50 Nokia Windows based phone is going to create a buzz. I don't see it happening. Until Nokia or Windows are able to show they have any competence in the smart phone market I will assume the numbers will come in below expectations. Just look at the financials. Not Pretty.

So stick around for a move down to $4 in the LONG run. short term I'm expecting a bottom around $4.90 to $4.95 or about $.40 below current trading. Options usually trade heavily on momentum, if I can get 3 or 4 days in a row of negative momentum I'm likely to make a 20-30% gain on the put option.

Thanks for reading!

Straight from the Chart

Disclaimer:
Just to be clear, nothing that I'm posting on this blog is in any way advice that should be followed by anyone else. All investment decisions should be made carefully by all individuals taking into account their own financial situation and appropriate levels of risk. Do not take anything I say for anything more than it is, opinion, speculation, and woefully undereducated guesses as to how I think a few stocks are going to perform. 

NOK - Can someone please tell me why NOK had a 5% jump today?

I just don't understand the jump today.

From what I can tell this has short opportunity written all over it. First of all I am ALWAYS leery of big moves that appear to happen for no reason what-so-ever. And if someone can explain to me how NOKIA suddenly became an attractive investment I'd like to know.

On the chart side I see several things including a nice channel telling me that the downward trend has been in place for the past 3 months with several instances of high volume jumps that take place for little or no reason.

I'm considering a Jan 2014 PUT option with a $5 Strike. I see this as a short term play as I ride the sell off down to the $5 - $4.90 level and get out with a nice 10%-20% profit on the option. Depending on how it opens in the morning, I'll let you know if I pull the trigger.

Thanks for reading!

Straight from the Chart

Disclaimer:
Just to be clear, nothing that I'm posting on this blog is in any way advice that should be followed by anyone else. All investment decisions should be made carefully by all individuals taking into account their own financial situation and appropriate levels of risk. Do not take anything I say for anything more than it is, opinion, speculation, and woefully undereducated guesses as to how I think a few stocks are going to perform.